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Justified News
Prediction markets for Justified
Prediction markets for Justified
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
Apr 4, 3:57 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
78.72%
chance
63
2809
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1530
1044
Will any lawmakers use AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?
Apr 22, 5:12 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
20.71%
chance
13
250
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1160
927
What is the best definition of evidence? (add your own)
Apr 4, 5:15 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
26
1291
Why will my solo consulting fail?
Jul 2, 10:40 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
1
30
How many war crimes will James Bond commit in the next James Bond movie?
Dec 30, 2:45 PM
Dec 1, 7:59 AM
12
913
If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
May 30, 8:38 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
19
8882
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AM
Dec 31, 4:01 PM
17.41%
chance
51
8584
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3705
3281
What will happen to Hugging Face?
Feb 22, 8:19 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
74
1828
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
56.32%
chance
27
1336
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1041
925
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
8.52%
chance
21
6782
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3277
305
Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?
Oct 7, 5:31 AM
Oct 1, 1:59 PM
70%
chance
31
1823
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1324
785
Will I be inconvenienced by Chrome disabling Manifest v2?
Nov 27, 10:29 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
72.71%
chance
14
270
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1040
969
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6
4 months
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