January News

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.33%chance

477155681

OptionVotes

YES

13056

12751

Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]

Feb 21, 5:55 PMNov 11, 7:59 AM

46.64%chance

12643113

OptionVotes

YES

13174

8454

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.79%chance

8810121

OptionVotes

YES

11417

8973

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

256444

OptionVotes

YES

7198

4144

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.05%chance

179854

OptionVotes

YES

7126

3446

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97%chance

149559419

OptionVotes

YES

7159

1294

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.54%chance

144904

OptionVotes

YES

4930

3665

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.56%chance

103923

OptionVotes

YES

4999

3609

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.59%chance

124930

OptionVotes

YES

5204

3441

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.85%chance

286395

OptionVotes

YES

7403

3293

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

178405

OptionVotes

YES

6331

3305

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January News

Prediction markets for January

Prediction markets for January

Prediction markets for January

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for January

Prediction markets for January

Prediction markets for January

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030