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Prediction markets for IT Rules 2021

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

15731521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1734

1533

Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?

Feb 20, 2:50 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

18213864

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.19%chance

10313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

964

Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026?

Jul 2, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.8%chance

14311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

938

Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?

Feb 9, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.41%chance

211684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

796

Will a new language be used at the next Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?

Apr 14, 6:12 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM

58%chance

12145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

978

Will SCOTUS rule in favor of NetChoice in NetChoice v Paxton this term?

Dec 1, 7:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.75%chance

385974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4484

344

What is the probability that Covid came from a Lab Leak, according to Zvi Mowshowitz in 2024?

Feb 3, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

281988

Total Pages Published in the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, 2024?

Jan 8, 7:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.96%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

260

What will Gabon's 2028 'Freedom in the World' score be?

Sep 9, 3:05 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

39%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

79

Will Fumio Kishida win Japan's next election (31 Oct 2025 or earlier)?

Apr 19, 2:30 AMNov 1, 6:59 AM

10.48%chance

6357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

29

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

5623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

80

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