Intelligence News

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

38.03%chance

373734

OptionVotes

YES

1028

869

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19274761

Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024?

Jun 17, 11:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

27.24%chance

319173

OptionVotes

YES

15449

6886

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

513321328

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

Feb 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20830648

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.79%chance

603351

OptionVotes

YES

1456

377

Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?

Dec 16, 8:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

52.17%chance

10716596

OptionVotes

YES

1144

986

Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem?

Aug 16, 4:34 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.01%chance

604638

OptionVotes

YES

1098

857

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.37%chance

35910

OptionVotes

YES

1036

903

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

53.61%chance

21474

OptionVotes

YES

1126

867

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

65.54%chance

29724

OptionVotes

YES

1019

940

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

35.33%chance

766531

OptionVotes

YES

1080

804

Latest stories

OpenAI's ChatGPT Impresses with Advanced Capabilities and Future Potential in AI Development
Authors
6
9 days
AI
Tech
Fastest Growing Scale AI Adopts MEI Hiring Policy, Shifts from DEI
Authors
9
17 days
VC
AI
Business
Study: 'The ten-million-year explosion' Shows ADHD Traits as Evolutionary Benefits
Authors
5
4 months
Science

Intelligence News

Prediction markets for Intelligence

Prediction markets for Intelligence

Prediction markets for Intelligence

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?

Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Intelligence

Prediction markets for Intelligence

Prediction markets for Intelligence

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?

Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?