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Prediction markets for Initiative

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.65%chance

16762246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6748

3868

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

53.79%chance

757166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

1858

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:17 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

10.61%chance

9913015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6105

1121

Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?

May 30, 7:13 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

92.82%chance

2328718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3596

278

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.61%chance

13155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1863

1695

Will any of the Top 3 labs release an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness prior to January 1, 2025?

Mar 6, 10:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28%chance

352152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

946

Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) approve an initial strike sanction?

Jun 24, 1:51 AMSep 13, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will IAM 751 members (Boeing Union in Washington) approve an initial strike sanction?

Jun 24, 1:48 AMJul 17, 5:00 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the “Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative” be added to the Nebraska constitution?

Jun 9, 4:22 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.35%chance

12521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.71%chance

13196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

903

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Tacoma Passes Initiative 1 for Tenant Rights, Renton Approves $19/hr Minimum Wage
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