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Independent Analysis News
Prediction markets for Independent Analysis
Prediction markets for Independent Analysis
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Achieve Ballot Access in All 50 States for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Dec 16, 4:29 PM
Nov 5, 4:59 AM
68.89%
chance
53
13638
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1604
325
Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
Jun 3, 9:34 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
35.39%
chance
14
835
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1351
740
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%
chance
11
570
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1249
801
Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
Aug 19, 10:41 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
82.63%
chance
24
1228
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1472
832
Will Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
Dec 10, 1:53 PM
Jan 1, 12:00 AM
18.76%
chance
13
746
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1239
875
Will Manifold Markets have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
Dec 10, 1:49 PM
Jan 1, 12:00 AM
13.41%
chance
32
2957
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2118
685
[Metaculus] Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?
Nov 7, 2:31 PM
Jan 2, 8:00 AM
61.09%
chance
6
157
Option
Votes
NO
YES
212
136
Will there be evidence by the end of 2024 of AI having a significant impact on the outcome of any political election?
Jan 2, 2:50 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
21.43%
chance
9
267
Option
Votes
YES
NO
274
180
At least how many UCI Professional Road Cyclists will pass away in 2024?
Jan 12, 2:39 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
5
1427
Will the paper proposing two big bangs be "confirmed" by EOY 2025?
Dec 15, 12:41 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
10.23%
chance
5
197
Option
Votes
YES
NO
340
146
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Australia's Navy Overhaul: New Fleet, $20B Hunter-Class Cost Rise, Ships by 2031
Authors
6
5 months
China
Australia
World
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