Independence News

If Trump is not the Republican nominee will he run as an Independent?

Nov 15, 11:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.69%chance

27734234

OptionVotes

YES

3681

2065

Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?

Sep 30, 10:04 AMNov 11, 4:59 AM

45%chance

25025271

OptionVotes

YES

2001

1240

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state before 2025?

Jan 7, 2:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.56%chance

4134205

OptionVotes

YES

1027

937

Will OpenAI exist as an independent entity by 2025?

Nov 20, 3:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.55%chance

342444

OptionVotes

YES

2340

822

Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?

Sep 4, 6:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56%chance

463123

OptionVotes

YES

1018

961

Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?

Jul 28, 4:44 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

90.67%chance

19336015

OptionVotes

YES

3383

1374

Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?

Sep 23, 1:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12%chance

2830144

OptionVotes

YES

1204

907

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

Jan 31, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.28%chance

14462

OptionVotes

YES

1184

729

[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Apr 23, 1:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.47%chance

221921

OptionVotes

YES

1052

797

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.02%chance

21677

OptionVotes

YES

1026

974

Will West Papua be independent by 2030?

May 30, 10:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.76%chance

6445

OptionVotes

YES

1433

698

Will NJ Senator Bob Menendez run for re-election an independent?

Mar 24, 6:21 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

48.23%chance

5110516

OptionVotes

YES

1235

412

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Independence News

Prediction markets for Independence

Prediction markets for Independence

Prediction markets for Independence

If Trump is not the Republican nominee will he run as an Independent?

Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state before 2025?

Will OpenAI exist as an independent entity by 2025?

Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?

Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?

Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Will West Papua be independent by 2030?

Will NJ Senator Bob Menendez run for re-election an independent?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Independence

Prediction markets for Independence

Prediction markets for Independence

If Trump is not the Republican nominee will he run as an Independent?

Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state before 2025?

Will OpenAI exist as an independent entity by 2025?

Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?

Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?

Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?