In the End News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.11%chance

714302497

OptionVotes

YES

21793

17437

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.23%chance

3160

OptionVotes

YES

10134

9876

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.86%chance

3310874

OptionVotes

YES

18386

7579

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

63.47%chance

24630273

OptionVotes

YES

4514

4273

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Oct 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

39.37%chance

339121882

OptionVotes

YES

1946

1385

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?

Dec 22, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

36.24%chance

53854612

OptionVotes

YES

5358

2242

🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?

Dec 28, 11:58 PMDec 31, 5:00 PM

38.75%chance

363247

OptionVotes

YES

3305

2715

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

102494

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.39%chance

696224

OptionVotes

YES

2514

2202

Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?

Oct 26, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.55%chance

11219237

OptionVotes

YES

1958

797

Will another person self-immolate in the United States for a political purpose by the end of 2024?

Apr 20, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.75%chance

501819

OptionVotes

YES

1111

886

Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?

Nov 28, 1:17 PMJul 22, 4:59 AM

33%chance

394012

OptionVotes

YES

2130

1511

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In the End News

Prediction markets for In the End

Prediction markets for In the End

Prediction markets for In the End

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?

🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?

Will another person self-immolate in the United States for a political purpose by the end of 2024?

Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for In the End

Prediction markets for In the End

Prediction markets for In the End

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?

🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?