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Prediction markets for In Different

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

7911417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

1081

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74%chance

11207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

951

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will loss curves on Pythia models of different sizes trained on the same data in the same order be similar?

Apr 12, 2:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

75.97%chance

11748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

942

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.97%chance

281031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

844

Will I see statistically significant difference in calibration when using 20 minutes vs 3 minutes in betting on markets?

Feb 25, 7:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.99%chance

19234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

953

In 2024, a US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college

Nov 11, 2:46 PMJan 6, 5:23 PM

19.92%chance

14501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

972

Will Sally Rooney's next novel be not-too-different in style to her first three?

Jan 25, 12:28 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

86.12%chance

111024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

900

Will the next edition of games in season 2 of Squid Game take place in a different country?

Jun 15, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.49%chance

26791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

811

Will Vivek Ramaswami create controversy with opinions about IQ race differences in 2024?

Jan 3, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.07%chance

10285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

953

Will there be more than two different leaders of the WTA rankings (single) in 2024?

Mar 17, 4:57 PMDec 21, 9:59 PM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

115

Conditional on a Democrat winning the U.S. Presidency in 2024, will I think that some Republicans or Republican supporters attempted to use violence to install a different President before the first 3 months of the new administration?

Nov 10, 4:00 AMNov 1, 6:59 AM

54%chance

11248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

302

103

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