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Prediction markets for How Many Stops

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

144070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5697

3703

Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?

Mar 3, 6:49 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

8.23%chance

11639006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8746

360

Will Ron DeSantis revert back to his previous height by EOY 2024?

Jan 22, 10:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.34%chance

35699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2326

1552

Will our Twitter impressions increase significantly if we remove our Gold Checkmark?

May 6, 10:55 PMAug 14, 5:59 AM

27.86%chance

335345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

1041

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

64.37%chance

14031696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

1251

Will Trump underperform in the general polls again? (2024 RCP Average)

Apr 12, 9:12 PMNov 11, 4:59 AM

49.28%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

963

Will any of these 10 pundits apologize by end of August for calling for Biden to drop out?

Jun 29, 11:30 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

38.65%chance

281888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

794

Is human civilization compatible with computers in the long term?

Mar 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.88%chance

10133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

979

Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?

Oct 23, 12:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.46%chance

14708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

859

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.48%chance

18944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

836

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

62.07%chance

17243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

891

Will ADHD medication alteration be proven true by 2024?

Apr 30, 8:26 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

8.73%chance

4010165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

766

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