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Highlights News
Prediction markets for Highlights
Prediction markets for Highlights
Will "Decision Theory with the Magic Parts Highlighted" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 20, 9:09 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
90%
chance
2
118
Option
Votes
NO
YES
172
26
June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets
Mar 6, 9:08 PM
Jun 29, 6:59 AM
749
402742
Writers' Room: Which of my comedy video ideas will have above-median performance?
Oct 21, 12:05 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
16
743
What should the Biden campaign be doing right now to increase their chances of winning the election?
Mar 4, 7:07 PM
Dec 8, 7:59 AM
118
11009
What should the Trump campaign be doing right now to increase their chances of winning the election?
Mar 6, 5:47 PM
Dec 8, 7:59 AM
36
2108
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Jun 19, 3:47 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
3.99%
chance
38
4162
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2631
853
Will Levi's discord server have 20+ members at the end of July?
Jul 20, 6:51 PM
Jul 31, 9:59 PM
82.52%
chance
13
1812
Option
Votes
NO
YES
293
133
Conditional on a warrant, will Netanyahu visit at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months?
May 21, 1:46 AM
May 23, 6:59 AM
26.82%
chance
18
1538
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2486
898
Will the BRICS countries announce an alternative to SWIFT at their summit in October 2024?
Dec 1, 9:09 PM
Nov 1, 3:59 AM
19.03%
chance
48
3234
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2322
1516
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
Apr 1, 3:16 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
12.66%
chance
77
16955
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1770
1210
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?
Apr 17, 7:54 PM
Dec 14, 12:00 PM
72%
chance
14
346
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1091
949
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
Apr 6, 7:57 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
63.31%
chance
12
589
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1254
816
Articles
Latest stories
Apple Unveils Safari Highlights Feature with Machine Learning for iOS 18, Extracts Addresses and Phone Numbers
Authors
4
17 days
Tech
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