Help Me Write News

Will Gemini help me write an email encouraging my vegan employees to eat red meat in 2024?

Feb 27, 8:39 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57.57%chance

18424

OptionVotes

YES

1094

911

Will an LLM be able to help me write a novel by understanding the entire story I've written so far by the end of 2024?

Dec 16, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1119

OptionVotes

YES

Will GPT be used to help write one of Biden's speeches in his first term?

Feb 8, 4:30 PMJan 20, 5:59 PM

12.91%chance

25980

OptionVotes

YES

1002

973

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45.43%chance

1021397989

OptionVotes

YES

4752

3960

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

What will be the outcome of the Pivot?

Apr 18, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

413690

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

1087

874

Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?

Jun 2, 6:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.49%chance

332729

OptionVotes

YES

1095

913

Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?

Dec 9, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.02%chance

231244

OptionVotes

YES

1207

707

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.39%chance

14311

OptionVotes

YES

1108

955

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.42%chance

16728

OptionVotes

YES

1532

851

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20.83%chance

13485

OptionVotes

YES

1279

756

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Help Me Write News

Prediction markets for Help Me Write

Prediction markets for Help Me Write

Prediction markets for Help Me Write

Will Gemini help me write an email encouraging my vegan employees to eat red meat in 2024?

Will an LLM be able to help me write a novel by understanding the entire story I've written so far by the end of 2024?

Will GPT be used to help write one of Biden's speeches in his first term?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

What will be the outcome of the Pivot?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?

Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Help Me Write

Prediction markets for Help Me Write

Prediction markets for Help Me Write

Will Gemini help me write an email encouraging my vegan employees to eat red meat in 2024?

Will an LLM be able to help me write a novel by understanding the entire story I've written so far by the end of 2024?

Will GPT be used to help write one of Biden's speeches in his first term?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

What will be the outcome of the Pivot?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?