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Prediction markets for HARM

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4255271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.21%chance

16548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

906

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.56%chance

15547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

932

By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon?

Dec 11, 2:31 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.29%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

942

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

15.37%chance

14317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

868

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.99%chance

14900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

858

Will plastics be banned because microplastics are too harmful to life

Dec 17, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.64%chance

11339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

968

Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Nov 22, 3:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.91%chance

312468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

921

Will there be any terrorist activity that harms civilians in Paris during the 2024 Olympics?

Mar 30, 8:12 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

25.52%chance

5165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

126

Will there be any terrorist activity that harms civilians in France during the 2024 Olympics?

Mar 30, 8:12 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

29.21%chance

7196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

147

Will RFK Jr. Harm Democrats?

Oct 9, 11:32 PMNov 12, 4:59 AM

71.99%chance

8283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

39

Is high Allulose consumption significantly harmful to humans?

Mar 14, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84%chance

6222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

96

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Russian Air Defenses Intercept Multiple Ukrainian Attacks on May 15, Including Crimean Peninsula and Tatarstan
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2 months
Ukraine
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