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Hard Truths News
Prediction markets for Hard Truths
Prediction markets for Hard Truths
What is the hardest line in fiction, according to Manifold?
Apr 10, 6:46 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
24
3794
Which films will be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards?
Mar 12, 9:20 PM
Feb 10, 1:29 PM
14
1846
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
20.4%
chance
15
1070
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5673
4770
By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?
Nov 15, 5:00 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
81.22%
chance
16
2710
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1130
949
Will human-level automated (AI or otherwise) music transcription exist in 2024?
Mar 3, 10:53 PM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
42.06%
chance
27
427
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1028
975
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
51%
chance
7
59
Option
Votes
YES
NO
156
143
Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034
Sep 11, 4:05 AM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
72.79%
chance
9
120
Option
Votes
NO
YES
245
157
Articles
Latest stories
Mike Leigh and Marianne Jean-Baptiste Reunite for 'Hard Truths' Film; Cannes 2024 Buzz, Cornerstone Unveils First Picture
Authors
9
5 months
Culture
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