Hard Times News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.51%chance

390542364

OptionVotes

YES

15663

14790

9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024

Dec 25, 1:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.95%chance

474111

OptionVotes

YES

1306

862

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

69075

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

151070

OptionVotes

YES

5673

4770

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.37%chance

371079

OptionVotes

YES

2150

2093

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

69.6%chance

755140

OptionVotes

YES

2075

1529

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Oct 4, 5:15 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.1%chance

342511

OptionVotes

YES

1781

1157

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

34.54%chance

1479512

OptionVotes

YES

1784

773

Will Mauna Loa erupt in 2024?

Nov 26, 2:52 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

7.8%chance

52568

OptionVotes

YES

3995

2464

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

59.98%chance

152082

OptionVotes

YES

1391

1127

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

253259

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Hard Times News

Prediction markets for Hard Times

Prediction markets for Hard Times

Prediction markets for Hard Times

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Will Mauna Loa erupt in 2024?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Which computational universe do we live in?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Hard Times

Prediction markets for Hard Times

Prediction markets for Hard Times

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?