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Top stories

Shibuya Extends Year-Round Street Drinking Ban; Shinjuku Bans Halloween Drinking
Authors
5
8 days
Japan
World

Prediction markets for Halloween

Will a third Boeing whistleblower die before the end of Halloween?

May 12, 5:19 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

9.5%chance

16819450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2050

1986

Will there be a 51st state by Halloween 2035?

Dec 21, 2:57 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

29.38%chance

17215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

948

Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024?

Jun 22, 4:29 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

36.33%chance

8775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

755

Will Bitcoin reach $80K by the end of Halloween 2024?

Mar 8, 8:54 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

26.1%chance

307614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

393

A self described Solarpunk movie has a theatre release before Halloween 2030

Jan 9, 12:44 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

64.6%chance

11149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

971

Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of Halloween?

Apr 24, 3:34 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

53.97%chance

13207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

986

Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2024?

Mar 4, 5:40 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

11.44%chance

15538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

930

Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2024?

Mar 12, 6:29 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

3.79%chance

131673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

838

Will a Manifold Guild/Clan/Team have 15 or more verified longtime members by Halloween 2024?

Jan 12, 10:57 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

53.96%chance

1050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

204

Will Manifold be allowed in all 50 states on Halloween Day?

May 1, 12:42 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

57.82%chance

9105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

263

219

Will I have 500 Substack followers/subscribers (counting both free and paid) by Halloween, 2024?

Jun 18, 3:01 AMNov 1, 3:00 AM

56.32%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will Spencer have plans for Halloween 2024?

Feb 25, 2:46 AMNov 2, 1:46 AM

80.26%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

77

Articles

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Shibuya Extends Year-Round Street Drinking Ban; Shinjuku Bans Halloween Drinking
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Fall Out Boy to Release 20th Anniversary Vinyl Reissue of Debut Album 'Take This to Your Grave', Depeche Mode Performs 'My Favourite Stranger' on The Tonight Show
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