Group News

England and Slovenia Tied 0-0 at Half-Time in Euro 2024 Group C Match; England Had Five Shots
Authors
20
8 days
Britain
Soccer
World

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

1303

1298

Will Firefox get native tab groups back in 2024?

May 27, 7:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.02%chance

5126

OptionVotes

YES

1021

980

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.1%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

1081

925

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.25%chance

10193

OptionVotes

YES

1033

973

Will Group managers ever receive Mana payment for their services?

Jan 8, 7:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.36%chance

11158

OptionVotes

YES

1069

959

Will Manifold implement hierarchical groups and subgroups by the end of 2024?

May 4, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

12151

OptionVotes

YES

1036

952

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.27%chance

12206

OptionVotes

YES

1101

891

Will Fenway Sports Group outbid the Saudis and acquire the PGA Tour (Aug 31 deadline)?

Nov 14, 1:59 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

25.66%chance

12988

OptionVotes

YES

1042

926

Will the New York Times report, on Election Day or the day after, cases of voter intimidation from extremist groups?

Jan 17, 7:36 PMNov 7, 5:59 AM

79.85%chance

23675

OptionVotes

YES

1200

924

SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24?

Oct 19, 2:31 PMOct 27, 3:59 AM

17.47%chance

15712

OptionVotes

YES

1391

880

Will "FTX Foundation, Inc." (i.e., the non-profit Future Fund entity) be added to the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings?

Nov 28, 4:34 AMJun 27, 10:59 PM

17.71%chance

19651

OptionVotes

YES

1423

857

Will Wagner group attack Ukraine from Belarus?

Jun 25, 6:57 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

5.47%chance

7022364

OptionVotes

YES

4429

892

Latest stories

England and Slovenia Tied 0-0 at Half-Time in Euro 2024 Group C Match; England Had Five Shots
Authors
20
8 days
Britain
Soccer
World
NCAA Reclassifies Pac-12 to Nonautonomy, Shifts to Power 4 Effective Aug 2
Authors
6
2 months
NCAA
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Group News

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Prediction markets for Group

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Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Will Firefox get native tab groups back in 2024?

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will Group managers ever receive Mana payment for their services?

Will Manifold implement hierarchical groups and subgroups by the end of 2024?

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Will Fenway Sports Group outbid the Saudis and acquire the PGA Tour (Aug 31 deadline)?

Will the New York Times report, on Election Day or the day after, cases of voter intimidation from extremist groups?

SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24?

Will "FTX Foundation, Inc." (i.e., the non-profit Future Fund entity) be added to the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings?

Will Wagner group attack Ukraine from Belarus?

Latest stories

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Prediction markets for Group

Prediction markets for Group

Prediction markets for Group

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Will Firefox get native tab groups back in 2024?

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will Group managers ever receive Mana payment for their services?