Good Time News

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

For my bachelor party, which activities will most attendees report enjoying/being a good use of time...

Jul 1, 1:03 AMJul 8, 6:59 AM

361

[Rewards for good comments] A COVID-19 vaccine available in the USA at time of market creation is discovered to have adverse cognitive effects

Jan 8, 8:21 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

13.77%chance

7277

OptionVotes

YES

265

133

By 2040, AIs will be as good as the best human at any task that can be performed on a computer at that time and as fast

May 2, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

165

137

On an average day, what describes your reasons for using manifold - "truth seeking" vs "having a good time"

Jan 4, 9:28 PM

410

Which ten decisions or habits will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions]

Jan 16, 8:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

854428

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

38.02%chance

613183455

OptionVotes

YES

17741

10483

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?

Dec 6, 1:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.59%chance

89139912

OptionVotes

YES

2047

1106

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.04%chance

12726724

OptionVotes

YES

1901

992

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?

Dec 6, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

6957156

OptionVotes

YES

2383

1288

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.44%chance

1416120

OptionVotes

YES

18895

1065

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

151070

OptionVotes

YES

5673

4770

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Good Time News

Prediction markets for Good Time

Prediction markets for Good Time

Prediction markets for Good Time

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

For my bachelor party, which activities will most attendees report enjoying/being a good use of time...

[Rewards for good comments] A COVID-19 vaccine available in the USA at time of market creation is discovered to have adverse cognitive effects

By 2040, AIs will be as good as the best human at any task that can be performed on a computer at that time and as fast

On an average day, what describes your reasons for using manifold - "truth seeking" vs "having a good time"

Which ten decisions or habits will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions]

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Good Time

Prediction markets for Good Time

Prediction markets for Good Time

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

For my bachelor party, which activities will most attendees report enjoying/being a good use of time...

[Rewards for good comments] A COVID-19 vaccine available in the USA at time of market creation is discovered to have adverse cognitive effects

By 2040, AIs will be as good as the best human at any task that can be performed on a computer at that time and as fast

On an average day, what describes your reasons for using manifold - "truth seeking" vs "having a good time"

Which ten decisions or habits will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions]

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?