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Prediction markets for Good Cause

Have games caused more good or more harm?

Jan 31, 1:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

910

Has alcohol caused more good or more harm?

Jan 29, 10:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

550

Have psychoactive drugs caused more good or more harm?

Feb 1, 10:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

470

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.21%chance

481496588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

1045

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?

Sep 13, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.31%chance

564806495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4130

2578

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.85%chance

286395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7403

3293

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.44%chance

1416120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18895

1065

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

213391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3809

3207

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.95%chance

12712585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3261

1027

By the end of 2024 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 7, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.91%chance

11218162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5050

1100

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.53%chance

642821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

1245

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NY Addresses Housing Crisis with Marxist-Influenced Good Cause Bill, Critics Concerned
Authors
5
3 months
New York
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