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Prediction markets for Go Deep

Michael Knowles' 5 big predictions for 2024

Jan 20, 12:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

886200

Scammers used deepfakes to steal $25 million in Hong Kong. Will this go down as the biggest deepfake scam of 2024?

Feb 6, 11:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.07%chance

463645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

972

Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election?

May 13, 12:07 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

76.79%chance

321860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

977

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will I consider Nat Friedman's tweet about AIs writing code to have been a wild exaggeration?

Mar 5, 5:54 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

57.6%chance

17650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

863

Will there be a disruption of the 2024 US Elections ?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37%chance

14336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

920

Has GPT-4's weights leaked on the deep or dark web already?

Feb 7, 4:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.06%chance

354189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

909

Conditional on safe AGI being developed, will there be significant mathematical results proving its safety properties?

Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

23.75%chance

7351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

144

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe in 2024

Sep 11, 4:23 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

34.38%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

Will Quaise Energy dig a borehole before 2025?

Jun 2, 12:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

37.57%chance

686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

130

Which league will sell most smart humanoid robots in 2030?

Mar 4, 1:34 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11140

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

81.61%chance

4163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

74

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