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Prediction markets for Go Broad

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Jan 21, 2:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.14%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

132

Will Television Broadcasts Limited (TVB) Default on Any of Its Debts and or Go Bankrupt on or Before 2028?

Sep 12, 7:52 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

30%chance

6557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

84

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.51%chance

390542364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15663

14790

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

178405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6331

3305

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.29%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4632

4000

Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?

Jan 30, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.2%chance

292171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

953

Will OpenAI re-add the "Sky" voice by the end of 2024?

May 24, 12:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

17521409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Will someone die as the direct consequence of a Letzte Generation protest by 2025?

Mar 15, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.89%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

961

Contingent on Twitter "collapsing", no SINGLE widely recognized successor will emerge within TWO years.

Nov 4, 6:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.11%chance

243392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

932

If Donald Trump becomes President, will he (or Congress) repeal Biden's compute reporting thresholds in 2025?

Feb 8, 1:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.19%chance

22385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

953

In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?

Nov 18, 12:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.78%chance

755163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

797

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