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Prediction markets for Getting Wild

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.67%chance

8142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

331

228

Will the US have "one person, one vote" by 2050?

Jan 18, 10:30 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

9.83%chance

201157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3220

2367

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?

Jan 30, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.16%chance

473401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

758

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.32%chance

30802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

978

Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century?

Jun 17, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

96.97%chance

46693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5660

177

What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released?

Jan 3, 1:52 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

10481

Will the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 10:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.36%chance

6342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

129

Will the Wild Boar (Sus scrofa) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 20, 7:52 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.19%chance

8524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

755

142

Will Père David's Deer (Elaphurus davidianus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 13, 8:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.7%chance

4192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

95

Will the Pez Graso, aka Fat Catfish (Rhizosomichthys totae) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 15, 8:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

98%chance

41090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

30

Will the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 30, 6:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.7%chance

5129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

167

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