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Prediction markets for Generative AI for Design

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

276100976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5200

783

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

11.95%chance

7715723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

2004

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs in the next 2 years?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

54.25%chance

21618

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1401

1077

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.77%chance

932796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1810

1644

Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?

Oct 8, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.04%chance

22422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.05%chance

111515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

719

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.57%chance

203843

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

955

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.28%chance

474284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

684

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.72%chance

21366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

910

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.88%chance

161520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

874

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

851

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