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Prediction markets for Generative

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

29464558721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11905

9892

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

23334973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

967

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?

Sep 13, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.59%chance

566807765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4385

2357

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.1%chance

19348237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2002

1337

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market, $1000M subsidy)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

16447784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3952

2742

Will AI be able to generate an interactive web front-end by the end of 2024?

May 30, 10:36 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

11580182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

305

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.46%chance

705493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6274

6067

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

28.24%chance

13665928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2411

529

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.47%chance

13111981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2969

2380

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.2%chance

21339153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4702

1324

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?

Feb 15, 6:35 PMJul 17, 6:59 AM

52.38%chance

38156734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2196

1709

By 2025, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?

Feb 7, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.84%chance

13113326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3206

1268

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