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Prediction markets for Frontier

When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?

Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41301

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

221551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

643

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55%chance

364857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.33%chance

4403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

755

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.82%chance

20378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

912

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.98%chance

18319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

994

Will, at the end of 2024, I consider Frontier Model Forum to have been a success? (500M subsidy)

Jul 26, 11:27 AMDec 30, 6:29 PM

40.89%chance

11447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

786

Will DPO or an Explicitly DPO-based Technique be Used to Train a Public Frontier Lab LLM Before Jan 1 2025?

Jun 26, 11:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.1%chance

231685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1467

790

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

May 29, 7:41 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

66.25%chance

182663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

885

Will "The case for training frontier AIs on Sumeria..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.42%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

993

Will "DeepMind's "Frontier Safety Framework" is w..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.65%chance

2310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

957

Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?

May 8, 10:15 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

11.46%chance

5521586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

931

Articles

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AMD-Powered Frontier Holds Top Spot on Top500 List; Intel-Powered Aurora Claims Fastest AI Supercomputer Title, AMD MI300A Powers Livermore_Lab
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Exascale Supercomputer Discovers BC8 Carbon 'Super Diamonds', 30% Stronger Than Diamonds
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AMD's Frontier Retains Top Spot in TOP500 with 1.194 Exaflop/s, Intel's Aurora Debuts at No. 2, Aiming for Two Quintillion Operations/s
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7
8 months
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