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Authors
21
10 days
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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.44%chance

776134

OptionVotes

YES

1008

945

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

498156

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.81%chance

19851

OptionVotes

YES

1746

1218

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

84.04%chance

5910168

OptionVotes

YES

2154

1700

Will Venezuela have free elections in 2024?

Oct 16, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.18%chance

655744

OptionVotes

YES

1611

1108

If Trump gets elected, will he free Ross Ulbricht?

May 26, 1:57 AMAug 16, 3:59 AM

45.85%chance

302487

OptionVotes

YES

1087

920

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

52.76%chance

161724

OptionVotes

YES

1018

980

Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?

Jun 9, 6:20 PMOct 9, 8:59 PM

58.22%chance

696687

OptionVotes

YES

1180

847

Young Thug free in 2024?

Jun 11, 12:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

59.75%chance

171144

OptionVotes

YES

1218

821

If I find a violation of universal free fall, will I come up with a promising tentative explanation?

Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.62%chance

15233

OptionVotes

YES

1090

951

☁️ Will Apple increase the free iCloud storage tier to >5GB in the US by 2030?

Mar 6, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

11296

OptionVotes

YES

1056

961

Will an ungoverned free society exist anywhere on Earth for at least one year before 2040?

Feb 13, 11:44 PMJan 21, 9:59 PM

23.43%chance

22957

OptionVotes

YES

1107

939

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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Will Venezuela have free elections in 2024?

If Trump gets elected, will he free Ross Ulbricht?

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?

Young Thug free in 2024?

If I find a violation of universal free fall, will I come up with a promising tentative explanation?

☁️ Will Apple increase the free iCloud storage tier to >5GB in the US by 2030?

Will an ungoverned free society exist anywhere on Earth for at least one year before 2040?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Free

Prediction markets for Free

Prediction markets for Free

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Will Venezuela have free elections in 2024?