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Prediction markets for Find the Votes

Will GPT-5 be able to make original jokes Manifold users consider funny?

Apr 21, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.1%chance

25546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

915

Will the 2024 election have higher turnout than 2020?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

20.2%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

941

Will Yamato be there when Luffy finds the One Piece?

Apr 28, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.53%chance

22565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

919

Is there something weird going on between Mira and firstuserhere?

Nov 4, 8:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20%chance

202441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

960

What share of the vote will the SPD receive in the next German federal election?

Jan 7, 2:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.09%chance

14383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

961

What share of the vote will the Greens receive in the next German federal election?

Jan 7, 2:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.39%chance

15313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

958

What share of the vote will the AFD receive in the next German federal election?

Jan 7, 2:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

22441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

985

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.99%chance

18902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1374

759

Will "What Discovering Latent Knowledge Did and Did..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

May 20, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.46%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

753

Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?

Jan 7, 4:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.84%chance

514670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

579

will I (@shankypanky) become romantically involved with anyone who voted for my February meme?

Mar 3, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9%chance

18953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1531

883

What share of the vote will the FDP receive in the next German federal election?

Jan 7, 2:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 AM

7.18%chance

20743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

943

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California Passes Proposition 1 Amid 'Find the Votes' Election Controversy
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