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Prediction markets for Final Resolution

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

36.73%chance

613183955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18228

10192

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.63%chance

262392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

954

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

Nov 30, 4:57 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

33%chance

1551225419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2307

598

Who will win the TikTok vs The US Government case to stop the TikTok ban?

May 7, 4:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

627503

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

41.16%chance

212022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1607

1204

Bouncy market

May 15, 10:08 AMAug 1, 9:59 PM

12%chance

11807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

605

99

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

70%chance

351251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

987

Will I successfully do my internship report in LaTeX ?

Apr 26, 4:33 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

11%chance

252153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

102

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

37.77%chance

12393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

884

Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024

Jan 11, 11:38 PMNov 12, 7:59 AM

24.9%chance

12286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

958

Will Epic vs Google hold up on appeal?

Dec 12, 11:39 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

74.85%chance

18384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

954

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