Figure News

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

51.32%chance

149136503

OptionVotes

YES

1862

1042

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

523280

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.05%chance

111515

OptionVotes

YES

1392

719

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

21.73%chance

15405

OptionVotes

YES

1214

923

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.38%chance

281783

OptionVotes

YES

1128

944

Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 11th July show positive growth?

Jun 12, 6:13 AMJul 11, 8:00 AM

72.78%chance

10670

OptionVotes

YES

1635

611

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.92%chance

191536

OptionVotes

YES

1066

940

Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election?

May 13, 12:07 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

76.79%chance

321860

OptionVotes

YES

1022

977

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20.07%chance

21719

OptionVotes

YES

1160

942

Will someone figure out how to train decent Stable diffusion models for <$10K USD? (2024 end)

Jun 22, 6:18 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

66.33%chance

1294

OptionVotes

YES

1082

947

Will any other high-level academic or public figure resign or be fired because of plagiarism allegations in 2024?

Jan 5, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.37%chance

422980

OptionVotes

YES

1483

841

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

75.32%chance

182506

OptionVotes

YES

1234

814

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Figure News

Prediction markets for Figure

Prediction markets for Figure

Prediction markets for Figure

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 11th July show positive growth?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election?

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

Will someone figure out how to train decent Stable diffusion models for <$10K USD? (2024 end)

Will any other high-level academic or public figure resign or be fired because of plagiarism allegations in 2024?

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Figure

Prediction markets for Figure

Prediction markets for Figure

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 11th July show positive growth?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?