Father Time News

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

18926

OptionVotes

YES

1056

934

Will Hunter Biden spend any time in federal prison while his father is president?

Sep 7, 10:47 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

33.22%chance

354576

OptionVotes

YES

1134

487

Will Sam Bankman-Fried's Father be arrested or serve time related to FTX by end 2025?

Nov 1, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

15%chance

7188

OptionVotes

YES

258

112

What will be the name of the next Elon Musk child? [Free Response, resolves to W/P/S poll of who was closest]

Sep 13, 5:35 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

8312905

Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?

Nov 8, 5:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.76%chance

141679

OptionVotes

YES

954

942

An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028

Sep 26, 8:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.41%chance

11395

OptionVotes

YES

1029

975

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Aug 4, 2:24 PMDec 12, 4:59 AM

5.5%chance

361603

OptionVotes

YES

1594

905

An American quickly has at least 15 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2027

Sep 26, 8:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.45%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

185

Nguyen Ba Stock

Apr 11, 9:35 AM

133691

OptionVotes

YES

464

431

Someone has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

Sep 26, 8:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.14%chance

4295

OptionVotes

YES

238

An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

Sep 26, 8:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.55%chance

346

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will Jared Kushner be indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.7%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Father Time News

Prediction markets for Father Time

Prediction markets for Father Time

Prediction markets for Father Time

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Will Hunter Biden spend any time in federal prison while his father is president?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried's Father be arrested or serve time related to FTX by end 2025?

What will be the name of the next Elon Musk child? [Free Response, resolves to W/P/S poll of who was closest]

Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?

An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

An American quickly has at least 15 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2027

Nguyen Ba Stock

Someone has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

Will Jared Kushner be indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Father Time

Prediction markets for Father Time

Prediction markets for Father Time

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Will Hunter Biden spend any time in federal prison while his father is president?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried's Father be arrested or serve time related to FTX by end 2025?

What will be the name of the next Elon Musk child? [Free Response, resolves to W/P/S poll of who was closest]

Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?

An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?