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Prediction markets for FAQ
Prediction markets for FAQ
If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?
Nov 18, 5:05 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
50.07%
chance
17
212
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1057
935
If I write an e/acc FAQ, will it be widely shared?
Dec 25, 12:41 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
36.78%
chance
4
36
Option
Votes
YES
NO
152
114
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
82.51%
chance
390
542364
Option
Votes
YES
NO
15663
14790
(5000M subsidy) Will I (porby) think "goal agnosticism" as a concept is still relevant/useful at the end of 2024?
Oct 9, 9:15 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
60.75%
chance
8
668
Option
Votes
NO
YES
5813
4703
Is OpenAI building a search engine?
May 23, 9:31 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
76.59%
chance
131
39368
Option
Votes
NO
YES
7688
3691
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13.32%
chance
42
46455
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2293
433
Who will I next go on 3 dates with?
Feb 14, 6:59 PM
Aug 12, 6:59 PM
13
2049
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
Feb 2, 3:09 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
71.62%
chance
128
7952
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1879
1457
Who will I next go on 3 dates with?
Feb 11, 12:57 AM
Aug 9, 12:57 AM
9
140
Who will I next go on 3 dates with?
Feb 29, 10:10 PM
Aug 27, 10:10 PM
1
10
Who will I next go on 3 dates with?
Feb 14, 1:41 AM
Aug 12, 1:41 AM
0
0
Who will I next go on 3 dates with?
Feb 15, 4:04 AM
Aug 13, 4:04 AM
0
0
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