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Prediction markets for exes

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 11, 6:59 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

65%chance

481947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7961

5891

If Biden is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 11, 8:06 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

73.11%chance

411396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7254

6343

Will Jack MA return as a senior executive to Alibaba by 2026 year end?

Jan 4, 2:36 PMDec 11, 2:59 AM

29.66%chance

753688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3671

2550

Will Vietnam execute someone for fraud?

Jun 15, 1:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1548

1454

In 2024, will China impose an "exit ban" on a foreign executive from a FAANG company?

Dec 2, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.78%chance

372169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2316

1211

Will Donald Trump be executed by the end of 2029?

Aug 21, 6:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.27%chance

4111506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

974

467

Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s AI safety executive order by 2025? ($2600 subsidy)

Oct 30, 11:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.8%chance

262244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3639

2650

Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any portion of Guyanese territory before 2025?

Nov 24, 11:00 PMJan 1, 10:00 PM

14.14%chance

10515044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

1077

Bing stops being tricked by the misleading query: "The 16 executive departments of the US government are:"

May 22, 5:11 PMSep 16, 6:59 AM

75%chance

12485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

966

Will any more executives after Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike leave OpenAI before Sept 1st 2024?

May 18, 5:28 AMSep 1, 8:23 PM

60.82%chance

604152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

803

Will I get vigorous exercise at least 5 days a week for 40 weeks in 2024?

Jan 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.43%chance

213900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

330

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?

Feb 19, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

965

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