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Prediction markets for EV
Prediction markets for EV
Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?
Jan 22, 1:29 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
17.56%
chance
50
10389
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1832
588
Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?
May 24, 7:05 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
58.39%
chance
4
313
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1185
844
Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?
Jan 25, 8:08 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
76.17%
chance
18
527
Option
Votes
YES
NO
991
988
Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035
Jun 19, 1:18 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
48.27%
chance
12
206
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1101
891
Will someone sell a non-lithium EV before 2025?
Dec 19, 4:19 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
66.14%
chance
37
1739
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1421
672
Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2024?
Jul 15, 5:18 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
18.78%
chance
13
1254
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1348
832
Will "Focus on the places where you feel shocked ev..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 22, 2:07 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
91%
chance
4
133
Option
Votes
NO
YES
135
3
Will AJ Kourabi win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2026?
Jan 1, 2:32 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
37.83%
chance
2
20
Option
Votes
YES
NO
85
58
What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?
Jan 8, 6:59 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
2
35
Will George of (https://epistem.ink/) win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2025?
Dec 10, 10:07 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
45%
chance
0
5
Option
Votes
YES
NO
55
45
Will Davide Radaelli win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2025?
Dec 10, 10:06 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
45%
chance
0
5
Option
Votes
YES
NO
55
45
Will Chinese EV make for more than 45% of new cars in 2027?
Jan 21, 8:57 PM
Jan 28, 10:59 PM
88.55%
chance
3
140
Option
Votes
NO
YES
209
53
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