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Prediction markets for ET

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Jul 26, 2:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.16%chance

154498919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8208

921

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

958

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will a matmul algorithm better than O(n^{2.371552}) [Willians et al. 2023] be published before the end of 2025?

Aug 7, 9:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.94%chance

251004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

921

Will Kamala Harris be the Vice President of the United States of America at 11:59PM ET on January 20th 2025?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

30.09%chance

301763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

620

Will Sarah Anderson et al vs Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt find that the defendants violated copyright by training Stable Diffusion on images scraped from the Internet?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

423653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive at least 1.5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Jul 29, 1:52 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

10.72%chance

321122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

917

Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive any electoral votes in the 2024 US presidential election?

Jul 29, 1:46 PMJan 6, 5:59 AM

7.93%chance

472256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

932

Will Joe Biden be alive at noon ET on 1/20/25?

Aug 27, 6:13 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

93.72%chance

17864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

955

Will low-concentration cryoprotectant preserve brain rhythms in a replication study of Suda et al. 1966?

May 15, 7:30 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

50.89%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

92

88

Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?

Feb 17, 3:37 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

25%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

70

Will Charles III of the UK et al meet a senior Taiwanese leader before the end of his reign?

Aug 17, 10:00 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

44.11%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

117

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