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Prediction markets for ESCAPES

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.59%chance

14513939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2492

1870

Will one person currently alive reach longevity escape velocity?

Nov 14, 7:25 PMNov 23, 7:59 AM

72.39%chance

422304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

896

Will GPT-4 escape?

Mar 17, 8:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

7.09%chance

231511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

920

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.81%chance

211981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2733

366

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

351593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026?

Jan 4, 10:47 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

14.76%chance

426271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

590

Will any AI model escape from confinement system by the act of itself before the end of 2024?

Dec 30, 4:55 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10.51%chance

14927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

931

Will human lives again be saved by a rocket's Launch Escape System before 2025?

Jul 27, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.25%chance

14548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

936

Will Peter Griffin in City Escape break 5M viewers by EOY 2024?

Dec 9, 8:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.48%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

73

Will Escape Room employees get their own Workers Compensation Class Code by 2030?

Feb 7, 6:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.18%chance

6122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

144

Will Bryan Johnson achieve his goal of aging escape velocity before 2030?

Jul 27, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.78%chance

8350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

165

Someone literally Factorios themselves by building a rocket and escaping a planet or moon before 2100?

Oct 19, 5:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.93%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

95

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'ESCAPES' Auction with 80 Artworks Draws 151 Bids, Extended Until 6:30pm BST
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4
17 days
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