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Equal Weight News
Prediction markets for Equal Weight
Prediction markets for Equal Weight
Who will run in the Republican primary for President (2024)?
Aug 7, 7:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
20
13600
A pure binary LLM will exist by end of 2024
Oct 29, 9:51 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
69.19%
chance
14
1088
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1002
911
Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)
Jan 8, 11:11 PM
Feb 1, 4:59 AM
45.32%
chance
11
258
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1068
900
In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?
Nov 18, 12:09 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
11.78%
chance
75
5163
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1855
797
Will a large city run out of water before 15march 2025?
May 11, 8:49 AM
Mar 15, 11:59 PM
47.58%
chance
18
571
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1054
906
In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages
Aug 22, 4:22 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
61
6874
When will the amount of LLMs released per day hit 100k in the US?
Jan 2, 7:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
5
270
In 2025, what body modifications will I have?
Jul 29, 10:03 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
1
30
Which organization will first release an open weights video generation model with fidelity as good as Sora?
Feb 16, 4:08 PM
Feb 24, 4:59 AM
33
763
What fraction of Turing machines implement halting functions?
Dec 29, 11:54 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
5
262
What will scientists cite as the primary causes of 2024's global temperature? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Jan 12, 7:16 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
23
1195
Will an open model with comparable results to GPT-4 on MMLU be released by the end of July 2024?
Jul 29, 9:42 PM
Jul 31, 9:59 AM
75.15%
chance
5
312
Option
Votes
NO
YES
200
91
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