EQS News

Will tailcalled make a post providing evidence that the EQ-SQ theory is due to measurement bias before the end of 2024?

Jul 30, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

50%chance

6361

OptionVotes

YES

139

106

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

70.22%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

200

101

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

31.37%chance

5510299

OptionVotes

YES

11492

10773

Algebraic value editing works better for larger language models, all else equal

Apr 2, 3:08 PMJul 29, 1:50 PM

48.16%chance

271532

OptionVotes

YES

1484

1474

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.64%chance

38913

OptionVotes

YES

1026

978

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.48%chance

353900

OptionVotes

YES

1504

899

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

80.86%chance

182956

OptionVotes

YES

2056

486

Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?

Mar 25, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.5%chance

14504

OptionVotes

YES

1043

974

Will Yuki Tsunoda have equal or more Q3 appearances than Sergio Perez during the 2024 season?

May 26, 1:16 AMDec 8, 7:59 AM

39.64%chance

8484

OptionVotes

YES

1234

810

ACA 5 Marriage Equality Vote Percentage

Jun 27, 8:26 AMDec 12, 7:59 AM

60.69%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

1242

805

Will any LLM correctly answer the question "why doesn't the rocket equation apply to airplanes?" before 2026?

Jan 4, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.99%chance

15595

OptionVotes

YES

1013

902

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

24742

OptionVotes

YES

1169

926

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EQS News

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Will tailcalled make a post providing evidence that the EQ-SQ theory is due to measurement bias before the end of 2024?

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Algebraic value editing works better for larger language models, all else equal

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?

Will Yuki Tsunoda have equal or more Q3 appearances than Sergio Perez during the 2024 season?

ACA 5 Marriage Equality Vote Percentage

Will any LLM correctly answer the question "why doesn't the rocket equation apply to airplanes?" before 2026?

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Will tailcalled make a post providing evidence that the EQ-SQ theory is due to measurement bias before the end of 2024?

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Algebraic value editing works better for larger language models, all else equal

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?

Will Yuki Tsunoda have equal or more Q3 appearances than Sergio Perez during the 2024 season?

ACA 5 Marriage Equality Vote Percentage