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Prediction markets for EOY

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.88%chance

18728805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13673

6574

Will Hezbollah attack Cyprus before EOY 2025?

Jun 20, 12:49 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.99%chance

147254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13592

8083

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.53%chance

26067924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2871

1686

Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?

Jun 7, 2:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.55%chance

629270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3500

286

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

151070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5673

4770

Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032

Mar 24, 2:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

8174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

108

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

15731521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1734

1533

Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?

Nov 17, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.3%chance

493398129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16682

1194

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.13%chance

14945012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7301

2303

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?

Sep 5, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.52%chance

27477006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2062

1105

Will Ron DeSantis revert back to his previous height by EOY 2024?

Jan 22, 10:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.34%chance

35699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2326

1552

Will the Manifold Creator Partner Program be seen as unsuccessful by EOY 2024?

Feb 28, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.08%chance

484004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

1831

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