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Prediction markets for Environmental
Prediction markets for Environmental
Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? (M$300 subsidy)
Jul 23, 1:54 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
30.36%
chance
51
2066
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1632
1107
Will the National Environmental Protection Act be substantially reformed by the end of 2025.
Feb 29, 6:00 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
39%
chance
10
149
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1043
966
What % of the effect of paternal age on de novo mutations is mediated by cumulative environmental exposure to mutagens?
Apr 3, 6:54 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
41.17%
chance
6
173
Option
Votes
YES
NO
91
83
Which of Project 2025's plans come to fruition?
Apr 19, 12:53 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
16
1165
What's a common idea/opinion/concept that you think is overrated?
Oct 24, 8:44 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
76
9073
BR Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market: Which of these proposals will the Brazilian Congress approve before the end of 2026?
Jun 23, 6:58 PM
Jan 1, 2:59 AM
1
2255
Chemistry Nobel 2024: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket
Feb 17, 3:05 PM
Oct 8, 9:59 PM
4
363
After university, which of these economics electives will I think, I should have taken?
Mar 30, 12:53 PM
Sep 20, 9:59 PM
27
2790
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
43.11%
chance
714
302497
Option
Votes
NO
YES
21793
17437
Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
Jun 9, 7:00 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
50.55%
chance
14
1360
Option
Votes
YES
NO
10098
9894
Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 17, 3:02 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
26.26%
chance
81
9696
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2768
788
Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?
Sep 3, 8:52 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
53.61%
chance
21
474
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1126
867
Articles
Latest stories
After Texas Dust-Up, BlackRock's Fink Shifts From ESG to 'Energy Pragmatism'
Authors
4
3 months
Politics
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