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Prediction markets for End of Watch

Will Apple release an Apple Watch powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024?

Jun 17, 1:19 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.47%chance

181516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

646

Will a highly watched yet highly illegal black market for GPUs emerge before the end of 2025

Mar 26, 7:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.08%chance

14313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

954

Will Sam Altman donate one of his watches (value 100,000 US $ or more) before the end of 2024?

Dec 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.01%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

117

Will Better Watch Out get a sequel (before the end of 2025)?

Sep 21, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.98%chance

989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

197

Will a Japanese emperor watch an MLB game again by end 2041

Sep 30, 8:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.3%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

64

Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025?

Jan 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

15724322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1355

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.7%chance

7324466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3170

968

Will Jackie lay an egg that hatches in 2025? 🦅 Big Bear Valley Bald Eagles

Apr 25, 1:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.79%chance

10306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

994

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

34.21%chance

13815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

721

🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?

Jan 2, 8:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.6%chance

13214849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

732

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

28.96%chance

181094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

937

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