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Emergency Response News
Prediction markets for Emergency Response
Prediction markets for Emergency Response
[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?
Oct 12, 10:28 PM
Jun 2, 9:00 AM
12.54%
chance
4
149
Option
Votes
YES
NO
259
63
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Sep 1, 3:51 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
55.82%
chance
1210
2503345
Option
Votes
YES
NO
11613
9665
Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?
Feb 27, 11:31 PM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
16.44%
chance
48
2998
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1705
768
Will there be an ISIS terrorist attack in France in 2024?
Mar 26, 7:40 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
43.43%
chance
28
1166
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1267
718
Which organism will the first released or escaped gene drive target?
Jan 26, 8:15 AM
Dec 15, 7:59 AM
8
174
Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?
Apr 28, 1:56 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
22.58%
chance
8
109
Option
Votes
YES
NO
233
167
what will be true in Ecuador? (read description)
Jan 9, 9:53 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13
3477
Did HIV come from a laboratory?
Jan 5, 8:45 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
2.47%
chance
8
596
Option
Votes
YES
NO
786
132
Articles
Latest stories
NOAA Declares Emergency Response for Florida Fish Deaths and Abnormal Behavior
Authors
19
3 months
Politics
Endangered Smalltooth Sawfish Dying in Florida Keys Spark NOAA Emergency Response
Authors
14
3 months
Florida
Politics
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