Elo News

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)

Mar 16, 7:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

202583

Will AlphaTom reach 2100 ELO in Bullet by the end of 2024?

Jun 6, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.52%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

1713

1325

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.13%chance

323263

OptionVotes

YES

2804

747

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Apr 23, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.54%chance

294146

OptionVotes

YES

1719

527

Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026?

May 29, 9:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

58.3%chance

8502

OptionVotes

YES

1182

846

Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo on the LMSYS leaderboard a two weeks after it is released.

Apr 2, 1:56 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM

76.86%chance

18332

OptionVotes

YES

1147

931

Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025?

Nov 28, 5:15 PMJul 1, 1:00 AM

79.26%chance

522846

OptionVotes

YES

1498

799

Will I reach 800 elo in chess.com (10 minutes) by the end of 2024?

Dec 16, 7:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.79%chance

13177

OptionVotes

YES

1003

987

Will OpenAI and Google models have a 100+ point Elo lead in the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2024?

Jan 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.01%chance

14664

OptionVotes

YES

1244

893

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)

Dec 26, 2:27 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

19.13%chance

5410444

OptionVotes

YES

1679

736

[Metaculus] Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

Jun 13, 11:32 AMJan 2, 5:00 PM

12.78%chance

42270

OptionVotes

YES

2612

383

Will Tyler1 hit 2000 Elo in chess by 2025?

Oct 10, 2:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68%chance

141568

OptionVotes

YES

1126

847

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Elo News

Prediction markets for Elo

Prediction markets for Elo

Prediction markets for Elo

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)

Will AlphaTom reach 2100 ELO in Bullet by the end of 2024?

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026?

Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo on the LMSYS leaderboard a two weeks after it is released.

Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025?

Will I reach 800 elo in chess.com (10 minutes) by the end of 2024?

Will OpenAI and Google models have a 100+ point Elo lead in the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2024?

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)

[Metaculus] Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

Will Tyler1 hit 2000 Elo in chess by 2025?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Elo

Prediction markets for Elo

Prediction markets for Elo

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)

Will AlphaTom reach 2100 ELO in Bullet by the end of 2024?

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026?

Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo on the LMSYS leaderboard a two weeks after it is released.

Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025?