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Prediction markets for EASY

Will it be easy to conjure Sydney chatbot on Bing or other platforms by January 2025?

Feb 18, 11:33 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

48.98%chance

146182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1648

1175

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.11%chance

685064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

761

Will Twitter implement an easy way to view the entire tree structure of tweet threads?

Dec 13, 2:56 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.16%chance

16182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

951

Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028?

Nov 27, 7:03 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.99%chance

11272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

951

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

80.11%chance

23535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

928

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.6%chance

12556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

899

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.92%chance

30850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

864

Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 2:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will it be easy for members of the general public to get proteomics of their own blood for <$500 by EOY 2024?

Oct 5, 4:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.61%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

114

Will 5-axis 3D printing software be released that allows easy 5-axis printing?

Dec 16, 1:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

5153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

94

Will "Thoughts on “AI is easy to control” by Pope &..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 6:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.31%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

87

Will AI be able to solve easy odd-one-out riddles by 2025?

Nov 9, 7:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.01%chance

9628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

179

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