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Earth Day News
Prediction markets for Earth Day
Prediction markets for Earth Day
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
May 12, 2:19 PM
Apr 10, 3:59 AM
10.48%
chance
9
350
Option
Votes
YES
NO
465
123
For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2024?
Mar 2, 5:26 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
22
14997
What civil time system will be used on Mars?
Jan 10, 1:11 AM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
26
1497
Next Moon Landing [Mega-Market] 🌚🚀🧑🚀🌝
Feb 26, 1:58 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
20
1211
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
Feb 27, 7:12 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
8.27%
chance
138
36006
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5620
1243
Will Dominic Cummings launch a new "startup" party before the next UK General Election?
Aug 15, 12:49 PM
Jan 31, 11:59 PM
6.87%
chance
40
6682
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4977
1151
Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure?
May 20, 1:40 PM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
53.5%
chance
2
75
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1073
932
When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?
Jul 27, 5:46 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
27.37%
chance
15
349
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1000
981
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
Jun 3, 6:34 PM
Jun 4, 6:59 AM
58.59%
chance
17
834
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1189
841
Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
Feb 29, 12:57 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
31.21%
chance
18
467
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1148
916
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
May 17, 1:00 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
26%
chance
17
479
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1036
905
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
Oct 13, 4:17 PM
Jul 2, 5:00 PM
74.38%
chance
36
3184
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1230
810
Articles
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6
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9
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