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Prediction markets for Early Years

Will UK Labour charge 20% VAT on private school fees within 1 year of winning election? [Potential early resolution]

Sep 27, 9:12 AMJan 27, 11:59 PM

78.53%chance

17956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

923

Was Rudy Giuliani selling pardons with Trump? YES/NO based on my credence in two years (can resolve early)

May 16, 1:53 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

44.39%chance

10185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

927

Will Kerbal Space Program 2 have Very Positive (85+) recent reviews on Steam two years after early access release?

Mar 8, 5:49 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

4.81%chance

191958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3314

623

2024 will be the year of advertising in market titles - hey cool dude, get in early, be an elite meta-user.

Dec 1, 12:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.99%chance

8141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

161

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

8.28%chance

10635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

731

160

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market (5000m prize voting based contest)

Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM

10247274

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.21%chance

481496588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

1045

Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME?

Jun 14, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.41%chance

409940

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10534

7901

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Mar 16, 5:09 PMAug 16, 4:59 AM

21.37%chance

183790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15275

10433

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

256444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7198

4144

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?

Sep 5, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.52%chance

27477006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2062

1105

[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

Jan 1, 1:31 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

88.03%chance

35673363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5809

783

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Latest stories

Princess Kate Middleton Provides Landmark Update on Early Years Project Amid Cancer Treatment
Authors
14
1 month
Britain
World

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