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Prediction markets for DOS
Prediction markets for DOS
Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?
Jan 2, 4:25 PM
Feb 9, 4:59 AM
9
1083
What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)
Mar 15, 9:33 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
6
731
When will the first dose of the R21 malaria vaccine be delivered to a patient in Africa outside of a clinical trial?
Mar 15, 9:00 PM
Aug 2, 6:59 AM
7
113
Will the number of children vaccinated with 3 doses of the R21 malaria vaccine reach 5M before January 1st, 2025?
Mar 15, 9:04 PM
Jul 2, 6:59 AM
48%
chance
8
66
Option
Votes
YES
NO
317
313
What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?
Mar 6, 2:30 AM
Jul 1, 3:59 AM
86.2%
chance
2
505
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
65
By How Much Does Micro-Dosed LSD Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?
Nov 29, 11:15 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
6
174
Will it be confirmed that >2M doses of the R21 malaria vaccine are delivered in a single month before January 1st, 2025?
Mar 15, 9:02 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
36.78%
chance
6
83
Option
Votes
YES
NO
328
235
If I take rapamycin, what dosage and schedule will I follow?
Sep 5, 10:50 PM
Feb 1, 6:59 AM
3
16
What total number of R21 malaria vaccine doses will be distributed in 2024?
Mar 15, 9:11 PM
Jul 2, 6:59 AM
3
582
How many malaria vaccine doses will be administered in 2024?
Dec 23, 6:56 PM
2
0
Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?
Dec 21, 10:10 PM
Jan 2, 3:59 AM
42.6%
chance
42
2203
Option
Votes
NO
YES
997
960
[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?
Oct 22, 8:52 AM
Jan 2, 12:00 PM
50.4%
chance
8
189
Option
Votes
NO
YES
154
142
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