DOOM News

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

60%chance

18121792

OptionVotes

YES

2412

1287

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Feb 13, 4:54 PMJan 1, 12:30 PM

34.64%chance

506052

OptionVotes

YES

1018

931

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.08%chance

562442

OptionVotes

YES

1876

1768

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Jan 1, 3:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.17%chance

10634708

OptionVotes

YES

1534

928

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.72%chance

251501

OptionVotes

YES

1243

831

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

May 14, 7:54 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

22.45%chance

733532

OptionVotes

YES

1440

1040

By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?

Feb 4, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.3%chance

606893

OptionVotes

YES

1798

809

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.62%chance

12205

OptionVotes

YES

1071

966

Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.64%chance

20930

OptionVotes

YES

1241

906

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Dec 27, 7:40 AMDec 28, 4:59 AM

30.8%chance

18566

OptionVotes

YES

1146

902

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

48.61%chance

221262

OptionVotes

YES

978

972

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

33.22%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1120

910

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DOOM News

Prediction markets for DOOM

Prediction markets for DOOM

Prediction markets for DOOM

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for DOOM

Prediction markets for DOOM

Prediction markets for DOOM

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?