Developing World News

Will the world develop a bigger bomb by 2100?

Aug 28, 9:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.91%chance

24747

OptionVotes

YES

999

980

Will artificial wombs become the norm of reproduction by 2044 in the developed world?

Aug 5, 4:37 AMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

9.2%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

1250

944

A full world government will develop before human-level AGI

Jan 29, 4:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4.25%chance

5203

OptionVotes

YES

333

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19880091

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2026?

Mar 14, 3:43 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

32.59%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

235

143

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2025?

Mar 14, 3:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

17.14%chance

9291

OptionVotes

YES

507

189

Will there in any year 2024-2030 be a decline in the number of Developers worldwide compared to last year?

May 21, 1:36 PMMay 31, 9:59 PM

60.83%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

128

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.33%chance

477155681

OptionVotes

YES

13056

12751

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

26232

3281

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.5%chance

9716001

OptionVotes

YES

2265

1103

In 2024, will the Bank of Japan announce the public rollout of its Central Bank Digital Currency?

Dec 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.82%chance

383420

OptionVotes

YES

2855

1029

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.62%chance

1287952

OptionVotes

YES

1879

1457

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Developing World News

Prediction markets for Developing World

Prediction markets for Developing World

Prediction markets for Developing World

Will the world develop a bigger bomb by 2100?

Will artificial wombs become the norm of reproduction by 2044 in the developed world?

A full world government will develop before human-level AGI

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2026?

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2025?

Will there in any year 2024-2030 be a decline in the number of Developers worldwide compared to last year?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

In 2024, will the Bank of Japan announce the public rollout of its Central Bank Digital Currency?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Developing World

Prediction markets for Developing World

Prediction markets for Developing World

Will the world develop a bigger bomb by 2100?

Will artificial wombs become the norm of reproduction by 2044 in the developed world?

A full world government will develop before human-level AGI

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2026?

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2025?

Will there in any year 2024-2030 be a decline in the number of Developers worldwide compared to last year?