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Prediction markets for Developer

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

32.39%chance

11248665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

692

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.33%chance

477155681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13056

12751

What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024?

Mar 1, 7:31 PMJan 1, 7:40 AM

127349679

What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024? (open for trading)

Apr 4, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8502

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

1078480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1791

1750

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.51%chance

352704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

786

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.5%chance

9716001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2265

1103

Will China announce development of its own extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in 2024?

Dec 1, 9:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.25%chance

426811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3013

840

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.62%chance

1287952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1879

1457

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.65%chance

7312274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1867

1140

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.53%chance

181124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

823

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Apple Launches Developer YouTube Account for WWDC 2024 Videos
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