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Prediction markets for Democratic presidential primary

Will the winner of the 2024 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary go on to win the nomination?

Jul 27, 10:59 AMAug 24, 1:30 PM

91.32%chance

121112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1616

903

Will the winner of the 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary go on to win the nomination?

Jul 27, 11:01 AMAug 24, 1:30 PM

93.95%chance

131053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

927

Will the Democratic Party conduct any official primary debates for the 2024 Presidential election?

Jul 28, 3:16 AMAug 23, 3:59 AM

5.18%chance

161555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

922

Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

Mar 25, 1:59 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM

8317027

Will any sitting or former member of Congress or state governor run in the Democratic Party primary for the 2024 Presidential Election?

Feb 10, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.38%chance

111528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

625

56

Will the DNC penalize the NH Democratic presidential primary delegates?

Sep 9, 8:01 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

42761

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

46.65%chance

23680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

968

Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

Apr 22, 1:32 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

43%chance

167241799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1926

229

Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

Mar 7, 5:55 AMApr 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

8278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

953

Will Trump underperform in the general polls again? (2024 RCP Average)

Apr 12, 9:12 PMNov 11, 4:59 AM

49.28%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

963

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

Mar 14, 9:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

10456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

899

Will Joe Biden lose a single state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?

Jun 6, 2:19 PMSep 1, 4:59 AM

4.51%chance

8031285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4614

478

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